• Sarwant Singh - Frost & Sullivan

9 Megatrends - Macro to Micro Opportunities on future businesses and personal lives


A SUMMARY FROM A RECENT CONFERENCE ON SMART CITIES

Transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies and people

Key Megatrends:

  1. FinTech taking a huge leap - crypto currencies

  2. Robots

  3. Sensory devices

  4. Fully automated cars

  5. 3D and 4D printing

  6. High speed rail services

  7. Retail: Digital experiences in the brick and mortar showroom

INTRODUCTION

VALUE for MANY vs VALUE for MONEY

  • SMART

  • Energy

  • Citizens

  • Infrastructure

  • Mobility

Biggest challenge facing humanity - MEGA VISION

TREND 1 - CONNECTIVITY & CONVERGENCE

5 billion internet users by 2020

5 connected devices for every user by 2020

Over 80 billion connected devices in 2020

5G - Bandwidth increases 5 times from 4G

Less than 1 millisecond latency**

SPACE JAM: there willl be 1,213 satellites launched, cumulatively, globally by 2021

Galileo is the first constellation of satellites for civilian applications. Launched by Europe.

Space Jam represents new frontier for Silicon Valley players to create connectivity in unwired parts of the globe. Eg: Google, Facebook, SpaceX

Implication : The Internet Economy is expected to grow 2X its value by 2020 in MENA cotinruting to about 5% of GDP

CONNECTED LIVING ECOSYSTEM

Home - Office - Environment (3)

3 approaches:

  • Philips - Assimilator Approach (most popular at the moment)

  • Qivicon - Aggregator Approach

  • Microsoft : Integrator Approach

  • Google: Launching NEST - living solutions vs just internet search

What can BIG DATA do for us?

  • Internet Aggregators - Price transparency, unbundling of activities

  • Real Time Prognostics - proactive maintenance, warranty management

  • Personalisation and Customisation - Me-COmmerce, social media analytics and reporting for targeted ads

  • New Products - User based insurance, telematics

  • Dynamic Pricing - Real time billboard pricing. Price different vouchers, surge pricing

Sub trend - Augmented Reality

Impacting different personal experiences

ex: Signposting, retail, marketing materials, repairs, tourism, trip planning

FUTURE OF EDUCATION = Flipped classroom (Khan academy)

More practical session in school and lecture at home

Case Study: SEOUL is poised to be the worlds most digital city in the world

M-Parking, Cite e-guide, Smart Surveillance, Virtual stores, WiFi bus stop, Interactive Media

TREND 2:

Cognitive Era - Artificial Intelligence

  1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (e.g.: Google Search)

  2. Artificial General Intelligence (e.g. : IBM Watson)

  3. Artificial Super Intelligence (does not exist today, e.g.: our Brain)

Quantum Computing can disrupt everything - research being done on this

Machines will need these 6 cognitive technologies for AI:

  • Computer Vision

  • Machine Learning

  • Rules based systems

  • Natural language processing

  • Optimisation

  • Planning and scheduling

Future Autonomous World - anything that moves in the future will be autonomous

  • Unmanned Vehicles

  • Autonomous Cars

  • Personal Robots

  • Drone Deliveries

  • Automated Security

  • Robotic Surgeries

Cars: From hands free to Mind Free - Future will see fully automated vehicles

FIN TECH - already a revolution. Global investment in fin tech tripled to $12.21 billion in 2014

  • P2P lending

  • Online Acquiring and M wallets

  • personal financial management

  • SME Services

  • MPOS

  • Banking

  • Bitcoin

Eg: Blockchain

  • Disrupts traditional cybersecurity

  • Low transact cost - near zero

  • Disinter mediated contracts - device negotiated

  • Scalable - industrial

Risk of Automation = Job Threat Mapping

AI in Buildings: Interactive and sharing resources

AI Healthcare : $6bn opportunity

Case Study: BERLIN’s rise to an innovation hub (Europe’s startup capital)

Funding Schemes, Training Programs, Tax Benefits, Government Investment

TREND 3 - Bricks and Clicks

Bricks - more of a brand experience vs buying

Vision 2020: Future Interactive Stores

Case Study: Audi City London - First digital car showroom

  • Fully digital retail style cyberstore

  • One stop experience for entire model range

  • Highly personalised customer dialogue

  • Gasification, Augmented Reality offers tailor made services

  • Specially trained dealer personnel interactivity

  • The Store experienced more sales without a test drive

TREND 4 - Cities - SMART is the new GREEN

  • Cities not countries will drive wealth creation

  • 8 elements of SMART - healthcare, transports etc

  • Over 26 global cities to be SMART by 2025

Case Study: Amsterdam - 50:50 public = private model jointly funded by the EU

TREND 5: Social Trends

  • Geo socialisation

  • ‘She Economy; - women leadership, diversity in workplace, women as a customer, diversity

  • Ageing population

  • Heterogenous society

  • Gen Y - 2.72 billion population -52% from Asia

  • Reverse Brain Drain

  • Halal Economy - projected to grow at double rate than the global economy by 2020

  • Middle Bulge (Middle Class) - 42% of global population - Huge tourism potential as more people will travel. Lots more air traffic from Asia

  • Surge in Asian work pool

  • Generational political shift

  • Robotics: Assisted Llving, household, teaching

TREND 6: New Business Models

  • Personalisation and customisation

  • Co-Creation (quirky.com)

  • One-off experience

  • Pay as you GO

  • Shared Economy - collaborative consumption

- Value for Many will replace Value for Money

- Free + premium = Freemium

TREND 7: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing (2nd biggest trend after digital) ****

  • The body, mind and soul

  • Healthcare model shifting from drugs and devices to digital experience

  • E-health

  • Gene Therapy

  • Healthcare tourism

  • Non invasive surgery

  • Health kiosks

Trend 8: Innovating to Zero

  • A megavision!

  • Zero emails

  • Carbon neutral cities

  • Neutral buildings

  • Zero breaches of security

Case Study: Copenhagen - The first carbonon neutral city by 2025

Trend 8: Infrastructure

  • Airports of the Future

  • Bigger, Bolder, better

  • Automation

  • Connected travlers

  • Airport cities

  • integrated security

  • Big data and analysts

  • Retail

  • Intelligent airports

Trend 9: Mobiliity

  • Taxi services

  • Instant - short distance

  • Transportation network computer

  • One Demand Carpooling

  • Foxed carpooling

  • Planned - Long distance

  • Public Transports

Global Powertrain Trends : From CAR to MOBILITY configurator

Case Study: Helsinki Mobility As a Service (MAAS)

Conclusion:

  • Circular economy

  • Resources scarcity

  • Virtual currency

  • Powered

  • Deep Sea mining

  • 3D / 4D Printing

  • Mind Reading Machines

  • Nanobots

21st Century Utilities - WHAT IS THE FUTURE?

  • Mobility

  • Big Data

  • Media

  • Healthcare

Macro to Micro:

(Macro) Megatrend -> Sub Trend -> Impact to your industry -> Impact on future product / technology -> Analysis of opportunities and unmet needs (Micro)

#megatrends #SmartCities #smarteconomy

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